me absolutely losing my shit in the retirement home and getting the aides called on me:

"Nurse! Pad me with three diapers, and leave me be." "But it's time for your daily..." "Nonsense, check in in a week from now."

I see HL3 as the perfect launch title for a new attempt at a SteamMachine console. And that would not work well as a shadow drop

Wasn't Alyx a shadow drop? Might be misremembering

I don't understand why this isn't done more often. Publishers announce games early, then have to go great lengths to keep the hype up all the time, then the announced date comes close, but game isn't anywhere near finished, so it has to be delayed, fans are disappointed, developers are stressed. Next date comes close, game still isn't finished, delay it again, fans are disappointed, developers burnt out. Next date arrives, game still isn't finished, but cannot delay again, as fans would really be disappointed now, so buggy mess of a game is released, fans still are disappointed, developers have to work hard to restore the reputation of the game and themselves by repairing the biggest issues, and fans are still disappointed as now things work this way that worked that way before. And anyway it's still not what was promised in the first place. Instead: Work secretly until the game is in a good state. Release, get good reviews. People get exactly what they expected, as their expectations came from the finished game and not some blown-up early-development marketing visions. Fans are happy, more good reviews.

Publicly traded companies need something to show to investors. Think that’s the main reason why games are announced so far ahead of time. Even indies have a similar process when they do early access or they’re trying to recruit development talent.

They really need to release it on april fools day with just a big banner in the steam front page.

It wasn't a shadow drop, but it was relatively light on PR. They had one big trailer six months before launch some gameplay videos, and of course the store page available.

Ty I was misremembering

Marketing cycles have gotten a lot shorter for these reasons. We used to have 2 year long marketing campaigns that are now often as short as 3 months. You do need people to know about your game, and you need them to be ready to buy it as soon as it comes out before the spotlight can be taken by something else. And in order to have reviews drop at the same time, review outlets need lead time ahead of release. Shadow dropping probably isn't the best answer for most games.

I like the idea of Gaben just posting the number 3 somewhere with no context and watching the shitstorm for a few days.

I have absolutely believed this will happen. Just drop it as a normal banner and walk away. No press, no advertising, no nothing. Save all those marketing dollars because you won't need it as soon as word gets out.

Because it doesnt make as much money. Marketing is popular because it works.