@jgordon

So. What you are telling me is that the AI crash is *also* a bubble now?

Lordy lordy what are we doing?

Is no one interested in dividends anymore?

@futurebird @jgordon

I have never seen a crash where everyone said in advance there was going to be a crash. Does that cancel it out? Are we going to have a surprise non-crash?

@futurebird My crackpot theory is for 25y we have had an imbalance between global money seeking productive returns and actual opportunities. Specifically not enough productive opportunities (in places where investments won’t be stolen).

The rise of Africa might change that if we survive the ai transition.

Also the index fund problem might be contributing …

@Phosphenes @futurebird I was in a 90s .com startup. We all knew the bubble was going to pop, we just hoped it would be after a cash acquisition.

@jgordon @Phosphenes

I agree there is too much money that needs a place to "be invested" and not enough places to do it, not enough brains moving the money to do it well.

Being an evil communist I would suggest that high taxes could help solve this problem.

@Phosphenes @jgordon

I have seen this happen for the past three crashes. But nobody listens to chicken little.

@futurebird @jgordon
I guess about 15 years ago, Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a popular book about what a great genius he was for figuring out how to get rich by betting on "black swan" and "grey swan" type disasterous market crashes. He was cautiously vague about the role shorting had played in the subprime loan crash, but his contemporaries shouted it from the rooftops. And so betting on the bubble bursting went from an obscure aspect of bubble dynamics to a famous aspect of bubble dynamics.