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Chebucto Regional Softball Club

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  3. When will the next "E.T." moment happen in the industry?
A forum for discussing and organizing recreational softball and baseball games and leagues in the greater Halifax area.

When will the next "E.T." moment happen in the industry?

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  • someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.comS someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.com
    Back in the 80's, Atari had a monopoly of games and charged absurd amounts of money for titles that pretty much had no quality control. The cost of each cartridge would easily go over $100 in today's money and gamers began to pull back on purchasing anything. This eventually culminated in the infamous E.T. movie tie in that led to pallets of its unsold cartridges ending up in a landfill and crashing the industry. Now that Nintendo's signaled to the rest of the industry it's okay to sell digital titles at $80 each, how soon do you see gamers collectively hold back on their purchases that will eventually collapse the AAA market? Will the current trade war play a role in the hardware side of things with the collapse? Will all major companies save Nintendo suffer the downturn?
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    Guest
    wrote last edited by
    #8
    It's happening, but for Hollywood.
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    • slimerancher@lemmy.worldS slimerancher@lemmy.world
      Yes. Currently announced / released games with $80 price tag for digital: - Mario Kart World - Tears of Kingdom - Switch 2 Edition - Super Mario Party Jamboree - Switch 2 Edition (I think this also has new content) - Kirby and the Forgotten Land - Switch 2 Edition (also has new content)
      misk@sopuli.xyzM This user is from outside of this forum
      misk@sopuli.xyzM This user is from outside of this forum
      misk@sopuli.xyz
      wrote last edited by
      #9
      Well, that sucks. At least with those you get an option of physical release at the same price. I thought they’d be doing what they did with Banaza which makes sense - those new carts have a non-trivial cost so charging less for digital seemed fair. I was wondering how they got around retailers pushing back against digital being cheaper but I guess they didn’t.
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      • MentalEdgeM MentalEdge
        It wont. ET only had the impact it had because the industry was small. Relatively speaking. Today, production (both indie and AAA tbh) is diverse enough, that no one game could ever taint the whole industry to that extent again.
        ? Offline
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        Guest
        wrote last edited by
        #10
        Pre-ordering is dead, live paid alpha testing is booming. There are so many games in development (alpha or beta testing) which can be bought. And as soon as the game is in the ballpark of "finished" it get's the v1.0 mark. And way before that, there are already DLC's available for an unfinished game.
        MentalEdgeM 1 Reply Last reply
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        • N nahostdeutschland@feddit.org
          The E.T. moment is overhyped and a US phenomenon. It never happened in Europe or Japan, for example. Everybody seems to think that the video game crash of 1983 nearly killed the video game industry and that the NES was responsible for reviving it while Europe had a vibrant home computer scene on their Commodores, BBC Micros, Sinclairs and others with games that were better than everything on the 2600. So what you might see is a crash in certain segments of the market and that happens quite often: There is nobody really releasing new MMORPGs anymore. Single Player FPS have crashed hard and now see a small revival by indie devs. For a while nobody did classic Point'n'Click adventures. Do you want a prediction? The current cost of graphic cards will crash the classic PC gaming market. There are some enthusiasts who are buying cards for thousands of dollars or building 4.000€ computers. But the majority of gamers will stay on their laptops or might go for cheaper devices like the SteamDeck. But if your game needs more power, needs a modern graphic card and a beefier PC, there are fewer and fewer people who can run it and many people can't afford it. So devs will target lower system specs with to reach the bigger audience
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          Guest
          wrote last edited by
          #11
          What crashed and brought back was gaming consoles. No one releases MMO’s? anymore? Dune’s MMO just dropped last week.
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          • ? Guest
            What crashed and brought back was gaming consoles. No one releases MMO’s? anymore? Dune’s MMO just dropped last week.
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            Guest
            wrote last edited by
            #12
            I'm assuming it was hyperbole, not literal.
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            • slimerancher@lemmy.worldS slimerancher@lemmy.world
              Just a correction, AAA games aren't less common. We are getting more and more indies, but we are also getting more AAA games than ever. It's possible that percentage of AAA games compared to indie games has changed, but that is because of increased indie output. Don't have any official stats, but as someone who keeps an eye on upcoming games, there are tons of AAA games coming out pretty much every year.
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              Guest
              wrote last edited by
              #13
              What I mean is that they are trending towards being a smaller part of the overall market year over year.
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              • someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.comS someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.com
                Back in the 80's, Atari had a monopoly of games and charged absurd amounts of money for titles that pretty much had no quality control. The cost of each cartridge would easily go over $100 in today's money and gamers began to pull back on purchasing anything. This eventually culminated in the infamous E.T. movie tie in that led to pallets of its unsold cartridges ending up in a landfill and crashing the industry. Now that Nintendo's signaled to the rest of the industry it's okay to sell digital titles at $80 each, how soon do you see gamers collectively hold back on their purchases that will eventually collapse the AAA market? Will the current trade war play a role in the hardware side of things with the collapse? Will all major companies save Nintendo suffer the downturn?
                ? Offline
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                Guest
                wrote last edited by
                #14
                But Nintendo’s isn't anywhere close to having a monopoly on gaming? Also, I'm totally willing to pay $80 or more for a game I actually want to play. This really is only a problem for the people that need to buy a new game every week.
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                • N nahostdeutschland@feddit.org
                  The E.T. moment is overhyped and a US phenomenon. It never happened in Europe or Japan, for example. Everybody seems to think that the video game crash of 1983 nearly killed the video game industry and that the NES was responsible for reviving it while Europe had a vibrant home computer scene on their Commodores, BBC Micros, Sinclairs and others with games that were better than everything on the 2600. So what you might see is a crash in certain segments of the market and that happens quite often: There is nobody really releasing new MMORPGs anymore. Single Player FPS have crashed hard and now see a small revival by indie devs. For a while nobody did classic Point'n'Click adventures. Do you want a prediction? The current cost of graphic cards will crash the classic PC gaming market. There are some enthusiasts who are buying cards for thousands of dollars or building 4.000€ computers. But the majority of gamers will stay on their laptops or might go for cheaper devices like the SteamDeck. But if your game needs more power, needs a modern graphic card and a beefier PC, there are fewer and fewer people who can run it and many people can't afford it. So devs will target lower system specs with to reach the bigger audience
                  ? Offline
                  ? Offline
                  Guest
                  wrote last edited by
                  #15
                  > Do you want a prediction? The current cost of graphic cards will crash the classic PC gaming market. There are some enthusiasts who are buying cards for thousands of dollars or building 4.000€ computers. But the majority of gamers will stay on their laptops or might go for cheaper devices like the SteamDeck. But if your game needs more power, needs a modern graphic card and a beefier PC, there are fewer and fewer people who can run it and many people can’t afford it. So devs will target lower system specs with to reach the bigger audience Also, there's not as much value in high-powered GPUs right now because these days high-end graphics often mean Unreal Engine 5. UE5 is excellent for static and slow-moving graphics but has a tendency towards visible artifacts in situations where the picture and especially the camera position changes quickly (especially since it's heavily reliant on TAA). These artifacts are largely independent of how good your GPU is. Unlike in previous generations, going for high-end graphics doesn't necessarily mean you get a great visual experience – your games might look like smeary messes no matter what kind of GPU you use because that's how modern engines work. Smeary messes with beautiful lighting, sure, but smeary messes nonetheless. My last GPU upgrade was from a Vega 56 to a 4080 (and then an XTX when the 4080 turned out to be a diva) and while the newer cards are nice I wouldn't exactly call them 1000 bucks nice given that most modern games look pretty bad in motion and most older ones did 4K@60 on the Vega already. Given that I jumped three generations forward from a mid-tier product to a fairly high-end one, the actual benefit in terms of gaming was *very* modest. The fact that Nvidia are now selling fancy upscaling and frame interpolation as killer features also doesn't inspire confidence. Picture quality in motion is already compromised; I don't want to pay big money to compromise it even further. If someone asked me about what GPU to get I'd tell them to get whatever they can find for a couple hundred bucks because, quite frankly, the performance difference isn't worth the price difference. RT is cool for a couple of days but I wouldn't spend much on it either, not as long as the combination of TAA and upscaling will hide half of the details behind dithered motion trails and time-delayed shadows.
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                  • ? Guest
                    Pre-ordering is dead, live paid alpha testing is booming. There are so many games in development (alpha or beta testing) which can be bought. And as soon as the game is in the ballpark of "finished" it get's the v1.0 mark. And way before that, there are already DLC's available for an unfinished game.
                    MentalEdgeM This user is from outside of this forum
                    MentalEdgeM This user is from outside of this forum
                    MentalEdge
                    wrote last edited by
                    #16
                    I assume you're referring to stuff like Tarkov or Star Citizen? These games basically work the same as live service games, except they pretend to be "in development". But I'd hardly call it a boom. There's only a couple truly big money makers, the rest are grifts that don't really go anywhere, but might have small vocal cult-like fanbases. Then there are games that really do use the "Early Access" model to fund getting the game made. It's not really like kickstarter, or preordering, because you do get to something in exchange for your money, immediately. And it hss brought us games like Satisfactory, DRG, Hades, Subnautica, Everspace... Even Baldurs Gate 3 was an Early Access title. You could buy and play it for YEARS before "1.0" dropped and became the explosive success it is today. Those games got made because they were able to sell copies to fund their development throughout the process. And instead of trying to please clueless investors, they had to please _the players_. I don't really see why you'd be salty about this psrt of the trend. Obviously some stuff is not worth buying, but that's true whether a game is finished or not.
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                    • ? Guest
                      What crashed and brought back was gaming consoles. No one releases MMO’s? anymore? Dune’s MMO just dropped last week.
                      N This user is from outside of this forum
                      N This user is from outside of this forum
                      nyctre@lemmy.world
                      wrote last edited by
                      #17
                      We used to have 1-2 "wow killers" every year. The last one that tried was new world in 2021, afaik. So I'm pretty sure they were referring to MMORPGs, not MMOs in general. Altho even those are fewer nowadays than before, I feel.
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                      • ? Guest
                        I'm assuming it was hyperbole, not literal.
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                        Guest
                        wrote last edited by
                        #18
                        The thing is there are a ton of MMOs that are coming out. Their claim makes no sense if you look at the slated releases.
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                        • someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.comS someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.com
                          Back in the 80's, Atari had a monopoly of games and charged absurd amounts of money for titles that pretty much had no quality control. The cost of each cartridge would easily go over $100 in today's money and gamers began to pull back on purchasing anything. This eventually culminated in the infamous E.T. movie tie in that led to pallets of its unsold cartridges ending up in a landfill and crashing the industry. Now that Nintendo's signaled to the rest of the industry it's okay to sell digital titles at $80 each, how soon do you see gamers collectively hold back on their purchases that will eventually collapse the AAA market? Will the current trade war play a role in the hardware side of things with the collapse? Will all major companies save Nintendo suffer the downturn?
                          S This user is from outside of this forum
                          S This user is from outside of this forum
                          shinkantrain@lemmy.ml
                          wrote last edited by
                          #19
                          Concord was the biggest flop of all time and people already forgot about it.
                          H R 2 Replies Last reply
                          0
                          • someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.comS someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.com
                            Back in the 80's, Atari had a monopoly of games and charged absurd amounts of money for titles that pretty much had no quality control. The cost of each cartridge would easily go over $100 in today's money and gamers began to pull back on purchasing anything. This eventually culminated in the infamous E.T. movie tie in that led to pallets of its unsold cartridges ending up in a landfill and crashing the industry. Now that Nintendo's signaled to the rest of the industry it's okay to sell digital titles at $80 each, how soon do you see gamers collectively hold back on their purchases that will eventually collapse the AAA market? Will the current trade war play a role in the hardware side of things with the collapse? Will all major companies save Nintendo suffer the downturn?
                            missingnoM This user is from outside of this forum
                            missingnoM This user is from outside of this forum
                            missingno
                            wrote last edited by
                            #20
                            The Atari crash was just Atari. In North America - and *only* North America, things were quite different elsewhere in the world - Atari was virtually the entire game industry at the time, but that isn't the case today. We already do see individual developers and publishers crash the way Atari did. All the time. But for every flop, there are a dozen hits. The industry is big, and it is not a monolith. And the audience is far far far larger. People will always be buying games. It's not possible for the entire industry to crash the way Atari did. It'd be like expecting the entire music industry, movie industry, or book industry to crash.
                            M 1 Reply Last reply
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                            • missingnoM missingno
                              The Atari crash was just Atari. In North America - and *only* North America, things were quite different elsewhere in the world - Atari was virtually the entire game industry at the time, but that isn't the case today. We already do see individual developers and publishers crash the way Atari did. All the time. But for every flop, there are a dozen hits. The industry is big, and it is not a monolith. And the audience is far far far larger. People will always be buying games. It's not possible for the entire industry to crash the way Atari did. It'd be like expecting the entire music industry, movie industry, or book industry to crash.
                              M This user is from outside of this forum
                              M This user is from outside of this forum
                              mindbleach@sh.itjust.works
                              wrote last edited by
                              #21
                              > It’d be like expecting the entire music industry, movie industry, or book industry to crash. Which can happen. Theaters sure aren't doing well. Movies soldier on without them, but with vanishing distinction from any other form of streaming video. When the superhero genre wanes, it might not be because some other bajillion-dollar trend overtook it. People can just stop caring enough to justify budgets with nine digits. What comes after that is a fallow period. Many large investments fail, capital dries up, a few pricks make headlines for declaring 'movies are over.' There's been several times that making money on music was not a reliable business model. The industry flipped out about piracy... on cassettes, and then also when MP3s came along. Fortunately they solved that through commercial streaming services which also don't pay artists anything. And now you can install a program that invents and records pop songs, just for you, in about as long as it takes to play them. Even in '83, it's not like Atari *died.* They had two more consoles that decade, plus a handheld. They marched on into the 1990s and *then* died. The crash simply meant a whole form of entertainment was no longer an expected feature in people's lives. Subscription MMOs have dwindled. The RTS genre crashed.
                              missingnoM 1 Reply Last reply
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                              • M This user is from outside of this forum
                                M This user is from outside of this forum
                                mindbleach@sh.itjust.works
                                wrote last edited by
                                #22
                                This user struggles with absolutes.
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                                • M mindbleach@sh.itjust.works
                                  > It’d be like expecting the entire music industry, movie industry, or book industry to crash. Which can happen. Theaters sure aren't doing well. Movies soldier on without them, but with vanishing distinction from any other form of streaming video. When the superhero genre wanes, it might not be because some other bajillion-dollar trend overtook it. People can just stop caring enough to justify budgets with nine digits. What comes after that is a fallow period. Many large investments fail, capital dries up, a few pricks make headlines for declaring 'movies are over.' There's been several times that making money on music was not a reliable business model. The industry flipped out about piracy... on cassettes, and then also when MP3s came along. Fortunately they solved that through commercial streaming services which also don't pay artists anything. And now you can install a program that invents and records pop songs, just for you, in about as long as it takes to play them. Even in '83, it's not like Atari *died.* They had two more consoles that decade, plus a handheld. They marched on into the 1990s and *then* died. The crash simply meant a whole form of entertainment was no longer an expected feature in people's lives. Subscription MMOs have dwindled. The RTS genre crashed.
                                  missingnoM This user is from outside of this forum
                                  missingnoM This user is from outside of this forum
                                  missingno
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #23
                                  But none of those are entire industries crashing. Audiences change, media changes how it targets audiences, business models change, but the medium still lives.
                                  M 1 Reply Last reply
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                                  • missingnoM missingno
                                    But none of those are entire industries crashing. Audiences change, media changes how it targets audiences, business models change, but the medium still lives.
                                    M This user is from outside of this forum
                                    M This user is from outside of this forum
                                    mindbleach@sh.itjust.works
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #24
                                    Again, not even Atari itself went away entirely. A crash means line go down. It's not a sudden and definite end.
                                    1 Reply Last reply
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                                    • S shinkantrain@lemmy.ml
                                      Concord was the biggest flop of all time and people already forgot about it.
                                      H This user is from outside of this forum
                                      H This user is from outside of this forum
                                      happysplinter@lemmy.world
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #25
                                      I just remembered about it after watching secret level.
                                      R 1 Reply Last reply
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                                      • someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.comS someonelol@lemmy.dbzer0.com
                                        Back in the 80's, Atari had a monopoly of games and charged absurd amounts of money for titles that pretty much had no quality control. The cost of each cartridge would easily go over $100 in today's money and gamers began to pull back on purchasing anything. This eventually culminated in the infamous E.T. movie tie in that led to pallets of its unsold cartridges ending up in a landfill and crashing the industry. Now that Nintendo's signaled to the rest of the industry it's okay to sell digital titles at $80 each, how soon do you see gamers collectively hold back on their purchases that will eventually collapse the AAA market? Will the current trade war play a role in the hardware side of things with the collapse? Will all major companies save Nintendo suffer the downturn?
                                        Captain AggravatedC This user is from outside of this forum
                                        Captain AggravatedC This user is from outside of this forum
                                        Captain Aggravated
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #26
                                        Well, I'm kinda curious how much longer home consoles are going to hang on. Nintendo is releasing their second generation handheld. The Steam Deck is quite popular, and the rest of the PC gaming industry has been scrabbling to match it. Meanwhile, the PS5...exists and what's an Xbox even for anymore? People like to say consoles will continue to exist because they're so much simpler than PCs to "just play" on, but that's not really true anymore. My parents' Switch has a multi-page settings menu, an online account and subscription, even games that come on cartridge often require downloads and updates before you start playing. We're in a different world than when I was a kid, when I could really get a game, plug it in the SNES, flip the switch and it runs. I could see Microsoft and Sony having an Atari or Sega moment. Exiting the hardware market, shutting down their platform, becoming a relatively minor game studio occasionally remembering to make a game in a property they haven't published in awhile, like Atari putting out an Alone In The Dark game every 1.5 decades or so.
                                        D ? M 3 Replies Last reply
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                                        • misk@sopuli.xyzM misk@sopuli.xyz
                                          Well, that sucks. At least with those you get an option of physical release at the same price. I thought they’d be doing what they did with Banaza which makes sense - those new carts have a non-trivial cost so charging less for digital seemed fair. I was wondering how they got around retailers pushing back against digital being cheaper but I guess they didn’t.
                                          L This user is from outside of this forum
                                          L This user is from outside of this forum
                                          llii@discuss.tchncs.de
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #27
                                          > At least with those you get an option of physical release at the same price. At least in Europe the physical version is more expensive. Mario Kart World for example: - Digital: 80 € - Physical: 90 €
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