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The post-GeForce era: What if Nvidia abandons PC gaming?
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The only thing that will burst the bubble is electricity. The Dotcom bubble burst due to Dark Fiber, all because massive Internet backbones were easy to build, and the last mile to people's homes, was not. The current electrical grid cannot support the number of data centers being built. The ones that are planned on top of that... Well dark data centers will be the new dark fiber. There's more complexity to it all, but really it all boils down to power for this particular bubble.or lack of use? the current trend is fueled by hype that AI can do everything and will sub 50% of the work force, another nightmare scenario… however, current AI may be an Ok tool for some jobs and not much more, dsthe world does not need 200 Gwatts of AI datacentres to produce memes
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Yes, the software will get there long before many people's hearts and minds. As you said already is in many cases. The inertia Nvidia got by being early is why they're so dominant now. But I think Nvidia's focus on crypto and now data center AI is set to hurt them long term. Only time will tell, and they're technically swimming in it ATM. But I'm getting out now.CUDA is actually pretty cool, especially in the early days when there was nothing like it. And Intel/AMD attempts at alternatives have been as mixed as their corporate dysfunction. And Nvidia has long has a focus on other spaces, like VR, AR, dataset generation, augmented reality and stuff. If every single LLM thing disappeared overnight in a puff of smoke, they’d be fine. It that I’m an apologist for them being total jerks, but I don’t want to act like CUDA isn’t useful, either.
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That didn't happen in a vacuum. For a lot of us we do more than game. And there legitimately wasn't an alternative till much more recently. For instance, for Over a decade. If you were rendering out, a hardware accelerated video through Premiere. It was likely with an Nvidia card. Raytracing, Nvidia has been king at that since long before the 2000 series. It's changing slowly. Thank goodness. I'm more than happy to be able to ditch Nvidia myself.I think "lot" is probably overstating but I don't have numbers. I don't know too much about ray tracing but I do know AMD is bad at it. But in the context of games I grew up with perfect dark. I can handle imperfect reflections and shadows. Really anyone can, but when you're shopping for things you tend to get caught up in wanting the best shiny new hotness and if you ignore the impacts of your choices and have infinite money, Nvidia is the clear winner. We just have now reached the inevitable outcome of that path.
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PC gaming itself will hardly change, because AMD cards work just fucking fine. They've only ever been a little bit behind on the high end. They've routinely been the better value for money, and offered a much lower low end. If they don't have to keep chasing the incomparable advantages Nvidia pulls out of their ass, maybe they can finally get serious about heterogenous compute. Or hey, maybe Nvidia ditching us would mean AMD finds the testicular fortitude to *clone CUDA already,* so we can end this farce of proprietary computation for your own god-damn code. Making any PC component single-vendor should've seen Nvidia chopped in half, long before this stupid bubble. Meanwhile: Cloud gaming isn't real. Anywhere after 1977, the idea that consumers would buy half a computer and phone in to a mainframe was a joke. The up-front savings were negligible and difference in capabilities did not matter. All you missed out on were your dungeon-crawlers being multiplayer, and mainframe operators kept trying to delete those programs anyway. Once home internet became commonplace even that difference vanished. As desktop prices rose and video encoding sped up, people kept selling the idea you'll buy a dumb screen and pay to play games somewhere else. You could even use your phone! Well... nowadays your phone can run Unreal 5. And a PS5 costs as much as my dirt-cheap eMachines from the AOL era, *before* inflation. That console will do raytracing, except games don't use it much, because it doesn't actually look better than how hard we've cheated with rasterization. So what the fuck is a datacenter going to offer, with 50ms of lag and compression artifacts? Who expects it's going to be cheaper, as we all juggle five subscriptions for streaming video?
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- Nvidia abandons x86 desktop gamers - The only hardware that gamers own are ARM handhelds - Some gamers stream x86 games, but devs start selling ARM builds since the x86 market is shrinking - AI bubble pops - Nvidia tries to regain x86 desktop gamers - Gamers are almost entirely on ARM - Nvidia pulls an IBM and vanishes quietly into enterprise services and not much elseNvidia does not care about the ISA of the CPU at all. They don't make it after all. Also not clear how they would kill x86. If they leave the market they cede it to AMD and Intel.
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There are other publishers besides EA out there. Literally nobody is making you buy garbage other than you.
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>It’s inexplicable to me. Why are folks ignoring Battlemage and AMD 9000 series when they’re so good? Because the 2022 GPU amd 7900xtx has better raw performance than the 9000 series, and I'm pissed off they didn't try to one-up themselves in the high-end market. I'm not buying a new Nvidia card but I'm not buying a 9000 series either because it feels like I'm paying for a sub-par GPU compared to what they're capable of.how is it a sub par GPU given it targets a specific segment (looking at it's price point, die area and memory & power envelope) with its configuration? You're upset that they didn't aim for a halo GPU and I can understand that, but how does this completely rule out a mid to high end offering from them? the 9000 series is reminiscent of nv10 versus vega10 GPUs like the 56, 64, even the Radeon 7; achieving _far_ more performance for less power and hardware.
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Nvidia does not care about the ISA of the CPU at all. They don't make it after all. Also not clear how they would kill x86. If they leave the market they cede it to AMD and Intel.
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Nvidia has drivers for arm. They're not in as good a shape as the X86 one is. But I don't think it's that big of a roadblock.Sure, but do you need a discrete video card if you’re gaming on an ARM SoC? And we’ve seen from the struggles of x86 iGPUs that graphics APIs pretty much have to choose whether they’re going to optimize for dedicated VRAM or shared memory, cuz it has inescapable implications for how you structure a game engine. ARM APIs will probably continue optimizing for shared memory, so PCI-E GPUs will always be second-class citizens.
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I think "lot" is probably overstating but I don't have numbers. I don't know too much about ray tracing but I do know AMD is bad at it. But in the context of games I grew up with perfect dark. I can handle imperfect reflections and shadows. Really anyone can, but when you're shopping for things you tend to get caught up in wanting the best shiny new hotness and if you ignore the impacts of your choices and have infinite money, Nvidia is the clear winner. We just have now reached the inevitable outcome of that path.I've been able to use cuda accelerated cycles rendering in blender with my nearly 12 year old gt 750 for a decade. We aren't even talking RT cores, though they still have a solid lead yes. AMD didn't get the capability till basically the covid chip shortage and crypto bubble. When everything was unobtanium. Likewise, go talk to anyone that edits video semi professionally. Accelerated timeline rendering via cuda in premiere was massive. AMD and now Intel are supporting both finally. But are only roughly a decade late. And software is still maturing for them. I'm looking at upgrading to a battle mage card since they can support my workflows. Gaming and 3d modeling/raytracing. 2 years ago that wouldn't have been a possibility. Nvidia made a massively good investment and position with cuda.
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Sure, but do you need a discrete video card if you’re gaming on an ARM SoC? And we’ve seen from the struggles of x86 iGPUs that graphics APIs pretty much have to choose whether they’re going to optimize for dedicated VRAM or shared memory, cuz it has inescapable implications for how you structure a game engine. ARM APIs will probably continue optimizing for shared memory, so PCI-E GPUs will always be second-class citizens.Yes, even for applications other than gaming. There are legitimate mad lads out there running steam games with discrete video cards on Raspberry Pi's and LLMs. Not to mention there are non soc arm machines. And soc Intel machines. Sometimes getting the integrated graphics on any of these SOCs working is a much harder prospect than getting a discrete one.
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or lack of use? the current trend is fueled by hype that AI can do everything and will sub 50% of the work force, another nightmare scenario… however, current AI may be an Ok tool for some jobs and not much more, dsthe world does not need 200 Gwatts of AI datacentres to produce memesData centers are already paid for, so they're being built. But if they can't go online due to power costs. Then that will burst the bubble. As for AI use... Sadly there are a bunch of people using it. And while the drop off rate of people trying it and ditching it is steep, there's actually a readoption curve. Which never fucking happens. So everyone is betting on the next model being better, and more people giving it all a second chance... Which are two open questions. But no power means no new model and no readoptions. This no profit. Those other steps can fail, but without power it all fails.
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I've been able to use cuda accelerated cycles rendering in blender with my nearly 12 year old gt 750 for a decade. We aren't even talking RT cores, though they still have a solid lead yes. AMD didn't get the capability till basically the covid chip shortage and crypto bubble. When everything was unobtanium. Likewise, go talk to anyone that edits video semi professionally. Accelerated timeline rendering via cuda in premiere was massive. AMD and now Intel are supporting both finally. But are only roughly a decade late. And software is still maturing for them. I'm looking at upgrading to a battle mage card since they can support my workflows. Gaming and 3d modeling/raytracing. 2 years ago that wouldn't have been a possibility. Nvidia made a massively good investment and position with cuda.
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I didn't do any of this. In fact, you were the mastermind behind all this. You did this, you need to learn that you not only caused the problem; you are the origin of the problem. You will never learn, will you!
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They are in cahoots with the RAM cartels to push gaming onto their cloud services so that competitors like AMD don't just pick them up. Trying to make everything into a service is just a side benefit, although I'm sure they realize 16 bit SNES games are still fun and that people will just be driven to less powerful entertainment platforms.
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>It’s inexplicable to me. Why are folks ignoring Battlemage and AMD 9000 series when they’re so good? Because the 2022 GPU amd 7900xtx has better raw performance than the 9000 series, and I'm pissed off they didn't try to one-up themselves in the high-end market. I'm not buying a new Nvidia card but I'm not buying a 9000 series either because it feels like I'm paying for a sub-par GPU compared to what they're capable of.>AMD didn't make a 5090 equivalent so I won't buy their mid-tier card Is there a name for this thinking?
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Data centers are already paid for, so they're being built. But if they can't go online due to power costs. Then that will burst the bubble. As for AI use... Sadly there are a bunch of people using it. And while the drop off rate of people trying it and ditching it is steep, there's actually a readoption curve. Which never fucking happens. So everyone is betting on the next model being better, and more people giving it all a second chance... Which are two open questions. But no power means no new model and no readoptions. This no profit. Those other steps can fail, but without power it all fails.> Data centers are already paid for, so they’re being built. no they are not… they are contracted in paper by openAI, for example, who has no way of paying for them other than "trust me bro" > But if they can’t go online due to power costs it's not just the cost… the infrastructure to produce all this additional power does not exist… another issue with these massive bubble >As for AI use… Sadly there are a bunch of people using it. And while the drop off rate of people trying it and ditching it is steep, there’s actually a readoption curve. Which never fucking happens. Served by the current infra, why do we need the next 200 gwatt for? to make memes faster? >So everyone is betting on the next model being better, and more people giving it all a second chance… Which are two open questions. by everybody you mean those ped.ling the bubble… we already saw the decline in the newer models and know it´s matematically impossible to get rid of the slop or get to "gen ai" through LLMs