The high turnout in this race makes the results harder to predict.
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@futurebird @Wyatt_H_Knott sure, you can adjust for demographics like that. But there's an axis that is something like "spam susceptibility", it probably has some correlations with age, income, etc., and you will get most of your responses for people high on that scale and effectively zero from people low on that scale.
Suppose it turns out that 1 in 10 people will just never, under any circumstances, answer a SMS survey (probably an under-estimate). You could assume they'll vote the same way as their age/location/income/etc peers, but that implicitly assumes that this difference has no impact on their vote. If instead it turns out to be something like "that's the most online 10% of the population" then it might be a big source of error.
Probably (hopefully?) people have studied this, but I don't know the results. It's just something I keep in mind when I read survey results nominally covering me that used a methodology that I am 100% sure could never have included me in the sample.
For various reasons people answering your poll may also be a problem. If they are as grouchy as I am.
myrmepropagandist (@futurebird@sauropods.win)
So last week I was trying to get everyone I knew to salt the "Clear Insights" poll from Cuomo. I didn't find many people on here who got the poll (it went out to people on NYC voter roles) BUT posting on my co-op message board where we complain about how long it's taking to replace the roof and the laundry room got some action.
Sauropods.win (sauropods.win)
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@futurebird @Wyatt_H_Knott sure, you can adjust for demographics like that. But there's an axis that is something like "spam susceptibility", it probably has some correlations with age, income, etc., and you will get most of your responses for people high on that scale and effectively zero from people low on that scale.
Suppose it turns out that 1 in 10 people will just never, under any circumstances, answer a SMS survey (probably an under-estimate). You could assume they'll vote the same way as their age/location/income/etc peers, but that implicitly assumes that this difference has no impact on their vote. If instead it turns out to be something like "that's the most online 10% of the population" then it might be a big source of error.
Probably (hopefully?) people have studied this, but I don't know the results. It's just something I keep in mind when I read survey results nominally covering me that used a methodology that I am 100% sure could never have included me in the sample.
@adrake @futurebird @Wyatt_H_Knott Wait! Does anyone ever answer those damn things? Surely that's got to be less than a percent, right?
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@adrake @futurebird @Wyatt_H_Knott Wait! Does anyone ever answer those damn things? Surely that's got to be less than a percent, right?
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@adrake @futurebird @Wyatt_H_Knott Wait! Does anyone ever answer those damn things? Surely that's got to be less than a percent, right?
@adrake @futurebird @Wyatt_H_Knott
Do you answer online or text polls?
