F
It is important that gambling is limited to narrow spheres such as lotteries and maybe horse races. Even then you get cheating and corruption.
It's not good for predicting the future because as soon as people think this is true you get manipulation. Then people try to ride the manipulation to make money.
For the love of God go make a real product and sell it like normal capitalists. Stop trying to milk someone's uncle's gambling addiction to make a quick buck.
Eventually there is enough money in the market that manipulating the results becomes too lucrative to avoid.
This is why even though this "idea" was proposed 30 years ago very few people were biting. We have entered a regulation-free space suddenly where we may learn why these things are a terrible idea.
But, people have known this for thousands of years. It's why gambling is "a sin" -- it produces nothing and only incentivizes lying and cheating.
This "prediction market" rebranding of gambling is Thirty Years Old. They were talking about this when I was in college.
"Since people have to bet money the predictions of these markets are more accurate than polls."
This statement can be true... for a time. It's true as long as only a small number of people are paying attention to the markets. As the profile of the markets grows their predictive ability tanks and perverse feedback loops are created.
*sings*
"And the devil will drag you under, by the sharp lapels of your checker'd coat."
Can I bet on when civilization will collapse? You got that inside lead? Help a girl out here.
"But a prediction market for scientific discoveries might have perverse impacts on journals, and scientists."
No no no... gambling on things has no impact on the things. No one would ever use inside influence to make a quick buck by changing the outcome of an event with a lot of bets placed on it. This is all pure and above board and an excellent idea.
Hey anyone want to start a "prediction market" for scientific discoveries? Paper publication and peer review results? We could get as rich as sin.
By sinning.
At some point I start feeling foolish for not just giving up and joining the circus. We would need a good lawyer though. Who knows the law around here?
Polymarket and Kalshi are NOT gambling companies. How could you say that?
I'm literally crying right now. When will the misinformation stop?
Please understand that it can't be gambling if there is a chart like it's the stock market and if there is an app where you can look at the chart before you bet- I mean invest in the prediction market.
Charts and graphs mean that this is science and science can't be gambling.
They are always so busy and serious about their tasks.
I didn't know about this book, but I will check it out.
When it comes to leafcutter ants there is no need to fret about rare insects being poached. They are very common and sometimes agricultural pests in their home countries. So, collecting a young colony isn't doing any harm.
A "Night at the Museum" variant about what the ants do when the Museum closes. They go out through a little door in the base of their display nest and explore all of the exhibits.
Any day when I visit the ant colony at the AMNH is a good day. It's like going to see an important visiting dignitary from the tropics. You can normally tell which chamber the queen is living in. That's where all the activity is. The colony has been in NYC long enough that she is the only ant who remembers what it was like to live underground or their home country. All of the workers have only know the museum.
It's a very healthy colony.
I always feel like it should have a name.
Listen it's hard to find local leaves that tropical ants will enjoy.
Yes. The “manhatANT” it’s a species of Lasius.
If you just want to see the ants at the #AMNH just go around back by 80th st and they are right by the door on the left.
I go back there all the time.
This colony is voracious eating like six mulberry branches a day. They have a whole jungle gym to tire them out.
Luna has star power but Nova has better fur.
OK if we are talking about capabilities there is no question. The squirrel is able to traverse terrain and obstacles that would baffle even the best robots with the most skilled operators.
However, I enjoy robots more. Squirrels always make snide remakes when I'm looking for ants near the base of their trees. They also have connections to organized crime.
But I guess so do the robots so... that one is a wash.
I mean nova... My mistake.